Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Faces Stiff Road Test in Game 3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the driving force for the Oklahoma City Thunder—nobody denies that. During the regular NBA season, he averaged a league-best 32.7 points per game. But when you dig into his splits, things get interesting, especially as he heads into Game 3 against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Here’s where things start to get dicey for bettors siding with the Over on his point prop. When Gilgeous-Alexander plays on the road, his shooting just isn’t the same. At home, he was nearly unstoppable, hitting 53.9% from the field and 39.6% from deep. On the road, those dip to 50.2% and 35.3%. Not huge drops on paper, but when you pile on playoff pressure and a charged Minnesota crowd, it starts to matter.
The Timberwolves aren't just tough—they’re strategic. Minnesota’s defense ranked sixth in the NBA this season, and they’re continuing that trend in the playoffs. They have made it a priority to slow the Thunder down, dragging the pace of play to a crawl—just 96.5 possessions per game so far in this series, compared to OKC’s usual 101.2. That means fewer possessions, and therefore, fewer scoring opportunities for Gilgeous-Alexander.
Minnesota’s Defensive Adjustments Put the Spotlight on the Under
So, why is the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 points prop gaining so much attention for Game 3? It comes down to the Timberwolves’ gameplan. Minnesota doubled down defensively in Game 2, especially late in the game, sending extra defenders at Gilgeous-Alexander to keep him from getting comfortable in isolation. Those double-teams aren’t going anywhere—if anything, they'll only get more aggressive with Minnesota in a must-win spot.
Take a look back at Game 1: Gilgeous-Alexander shot a rough 10-for-27 from the field and missed all four of his three-point tries. Sure, he picked up points at the free-throw line (14 attempts), but the Timberwolves’ defense found ways to make his night difficult. At home, Minnesota cranks up the intensity even more. Crowd noise messes with rhythm, and the Wolves’ big bodies clog up the lanes, forcing the Thunder’s star to either settle for tough shots or cough up the ball to a teammate.
From a betting perspective, it's not just about statistics—it’s about context. The Timberwolves need a win, they’re at home, and all eyes are on Gilgeous-Alexander. Expect Minnesota to swarm him, challenge every shot, and limit the Thunder’s transition chances. If you're eyeing player props for Friday’s clash, the case for Under 32.5 is as strong as it gets.
