PSG’s Champions League Charge: Odds Swing Sharply After London Triumph
Anyone tuning in to the first leg of the Champions League semi-final could see it on the pitch—and now the betting markets agree: PSG have been crowned the clear favourites for this year’s trophy after their efficient 1-0 win over Arsenal at the Emirates. Those backing PSG watched their odds shorten from +225 down to +125, which, in simple terms, means a confidence boost from oddsmakers that puts PSG's chances of lifting the cup at an impressive 44.44%.
This isn’t just about one good match. That Paris win marks a huge psychological advantage for the French champions. History is on their side: they’ve sealed progression in 18 out of the last 19 European ties when they’ve pulled off a first-leg away win. Anyone doubting their resolve had only to look at how they silenced one of the noisiest home crowds in Europe and walked away with a clean sheet.
Arsenal's Uphill Battle and the Chasing Pack
Things are suddenly a lot less rosy for Arsenal. The Gunners were still flying high before kickoff, but their defeat at home forced the Opta supercomputer to slash their projected Champions League win probability from a pretty healthy 31.3% down to a threadbare 15%. That's a dramatic drop, and it’s the kind of thing that plays on everyone’s mind—even if you’re not the superstitious type.
Still, Arsenal fans have something to hang onto. Their side carries a twelve-game unbeaten run heading into the second leg, and they’ve been tough to break in front of their own fans all season. The problem? This time, they’ll be staring down a PSG squad in the Parc des Princes, where the atmosphere gets even more intimidating and mistakes are punished in a flash.
It isn’t just about these two. Over in Spain, Barcelona holds on to 28.7% odds, while Inter Milan have around an 18.1% shot. But neither side comes with the ruthless recent European form that PSG have shown, especially after that eye-opening Round of 16 putdown over Liverpool. When it comes to Champions League knockouts this spring, nobody has managed the pressure better than PSG—they look energised by it. There’s a clinical nature to their play now, from their measured pressing to deadly counterattacks, that Arsenal struggled to contain across the pitch.
Of course, history is littered with comebacks, and the Premier League side isn’t out of the race yet. But if Arsenal want to extend their European adventure, they’ll need to flip the narrative in enemy territory—against a PSG machine that rarely blinks when the stakes are at their peak.
