The money, the math, and the mismatch in valuation
Two companies are closest to turning air taxis from sizzle into service: Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation. On the surface, they look similar—sleek tilt-rotor designs, big-name partners, ambitious timelines. Look under the hood, and the picture shifts. The cash, burn, and partnerships tell a different story about who’s set up to survive the long certification grind and scale once the gates open.
Start with money. As of Q2 2025, Archer reported roughly $1.724 billion in cash, while Joby sat near $991 million. That’s a sizable gap for two pre-revenue manufacturers racing to certify aircraft, staff operations, and stand up supply chains. Archer is also burning less: about $123.5 million in Q2 2025, giving it a longer runway at a critical moment in the program. The balance sheet is clean too—minimal debt, with just $75 million in long-term obligations and none current at year-end 2024.
Here’s the twist: despite holding more cash and burning it slower, Archer trades at a lower market cap—about $6.35 billion versus Joby’s $8.44 billion, a discount of roughly 30%. For investors who care about downside protection and optionality, that disconnect is hard to ignore. Pre-revenue aviation stories often trade on promise; cash gives them time to turn that promise into product.
What explains the valuation gap? Part of it is reputation and momentum. Joby was early, highly visible, and has built a perception of being out in front on certification. Another piece: Joby’s tight vertical integration appeals to investors who believe in end-to-end control of design, production, and operations. Yet markets adjust as timelines tighten. In that light, Archer’s lower burn, bigger cash pile, and growing revenue pathways look like a safety net and a springboard.
When you strip it down to runway math, the contrast is stark. Extend Archer’s Q2 burn rate and you get more quarters of life before another raise, even if expenses climb into flight testing and early production. Joby still has room, but its cash cushion is thinner unless spending slows or fresh capital arrives. Cash doesn’t guarantee victory, but in aerospace—where schedules slip and regulators ask for more—time is a weapon.
Tech bets, partners with pull, and the fight to the first paying flight
The obvious question: who’s more likely to fly paying passengers first and do it at scale? That answer blends certification cadence, supply-chain readiness, credible partners, and where the first dollars come from—defense, commercial routes, or both.
On certification, Joby holds the edge. The company has been advancing through the FAA’s multi-stage type certification process and is working toward TIA (Type Inspection Authorization) flight testing in 2025. That’s the point where FAA test pilots fly the aircraft against certification standards—arguably the biggest near-term catalyst in the program. Joby also has a track record of methodical regulatory progress and has built internal teams around compliance, quality, and testing rigor.
Archer isn’t far behind and has spent the last year closing the gap. The Midnight aircraft targets a 100-mile maximum range, around 150 mph top speed, and seating for four passengers plus a pilot—specs that are broadly aligned with Joby’s S4 2.0. Where Archer differentiates is how it turns that platform into multiple businesses: passenger service, cargo, and defense. The company’s modular approach is designed to adapt the core airframe to different missions, which matters if demand patterns aren’t uniform in the early days.
Both companies chose a tilt-rotor architecture with all-electric propulsion. That choice comes with upside—efficiency in cruise and compact operations in tight urban spaces—and trade-offs. Tilt-rotor systems are mechanically complex and historically tricky. Critics often cite the V-22 Osprey’s safety record; its Class A mishap rate of 3.61 per 100,000 flight hours dwarfs conventional helicopters at 0.87. The Osprey isn’t an electric civilian aircraft, and the engineering context is different, but the cautionary tale is fair: tilt systems demand meticulous design, validation, and training. Both firms are building in redundancy across batteries, motors, and flight controls to win regulators’ trust and the public’s.
Noise is another make-or-break. Both companies say their aircraft will be far quieter than helicopters, aiming for neighborhood-friendly footprints that unlock vertiports near where people live and work. The promise is short hops—airport to city core in minutes—without the rotor thump or emissions of Jet-A burning helicopters. Hitting those noise targets at scale and in varied weather will be crucial for city permits and public buy-in.
Where the revenue might come from first could tilt the race. Archer has leaned hard into defense and near-term commercial visibility. On defense, it landed a U.S. Air Force contract worth $142 million and paired up with Anduril Industries to co-develop hybrid VTOL for defense missions—tapping a potential market the company pegs in the billions. Defense work isn’t just money; it’s a direct line to operational feedback, rapid prototyping, and risk-sharing for subsystems that later flow into commercial variants.
On the commercial side, Archer has a major anchor in United Airlines, which has 200 aircraft on order and plans to run short, high-demand routes like Newark to Manhattan in about eight minutes. That’s a real use case: predictable demand, premium passengers, and a clear time savings against car traffic. Archer has also been named the official air taxi provider for the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games—an event that can showcase the tech under a global spotlight and pressure-test operations in a complex metro.
Joby’s partner roster is no slouch either. Toyota remains a core backer—financially and operationally—with a $500 million commitment and manufacturing know-how that’s shaped Joby’s production philosophy. Joby’s international push is also more developed right now, with a partnership with ANA in Japan and ongoing work in the UAE. A previously touted collaboration with L3Harris slid on timing, a reminder that defense and dual-use deals can shift with budgets and specs. Still, Joby’s footprint outside the U.S. could pay off if regulators abroad move fast or if tourism corridors prove to be early winners for urban air mobility.
Manufacturing could be where Archer’s auto ties become a force multiplier. Stellantis is retrofitting its Illinois facility to produce up to 650 aircraft annually by 2026, plugging Archer into an automotive-grade supply chain and quality system. Building aircraft like cars is a leap, but the muscle memory—vendor management, stamping, assembly line discipline—transfers better than many think. That’s a different bet than Joby’s vertically integrated path, which keeps more control in-house but can cap near-term capacity unless new lines spin up fast.
Joby has advanced its production readiness with FAA oversight around its manufacturing line and has been expanding from a pilot production setup toward larger-scale capabilities. The company’s approach favors tight integration between design, test, and build—good for iteration speed and for keeping core IP under one roof. It also gives Joby leverage on quality and change control as it heads into certification testing where even small variances matter.
Then there’s the unglamorous part: infrastructure. Vertiports, charging, power delivery, fire safety standards, passenger flow, and integration with air traffic management. Airlines and airports help here, which is why United’s involvement matters for Archer, and why Joby’s airline and airport talks in Japan and the Middle East matter too. Local permitting can be slow. Communities have to sign off. And utilities need to bring reliable power to roofs and pads that were never designed for megawatt-scale chargers. Early routes will likely stick to a handful of proven corridors between major airports and business districts where the payoff is obvious and neighbors are on board.
Economics come down to three levers: utilization, maintenance, and energy. Electric aircraft should be cheaper to “fuel” than helicopters and simpler to maintain thanks to fewer moving parts. But batteries age, thermal management is hard, and charging times affect daily throughput. That’s why both companies talk about short stage lengths, high-frequency schedules, and dedicated pads with fast charging. If the aircraft can turn quickly and fly often, the seat-mile math gets better. If not, prices creep up and adoption slows.
What should investors watch over the next 12 to 24 months? A few concrete milestones stand out:
- Certification: Joby’s progress toward TIA and the FAA’s test program; Archer’s pace through key compliance checkpoints and test expansions.
- Production readiness: Stellantis’s Illinois line for Archer and Joby’s scaling from pilot to higher-rate manufacturing with FAA oversight.
- Defense traction: Additional U.S. government task orders or flight demonstrations that firm up mission demand and unit counts.
- Commercial ops: Signed route launches (like Newark–Manhattan), vertiport build-outs, and early service partnerships that include pricing and schedules.
- Cash runway: Quarterly burn, new capital raises, and non-dilutive funding that stretches timelines without crimping test or build velocity.
Risk cuts both ways. Even with momentum, certification can slip. Regulators may ask for more data on batteries, redundancy, and emergency procedures. Public acceptance isn’t guaranteed—even a single high-profile incident can set the whole sector back. Weather performance, especially in hot-and-high or cold conditions, needs to be proven over thousands of flights, not dozens. Insurance markets are still writing the playbook. And without enough pilots trained on type, ramping schedules will lag demand.
So where does that leave the scoreboard today? Joby leads on certification and has strong international positioning. Archer counters with more cash, a lower burn, and a broader near-term revenue mix—defense, commercial routes with an airline anchor, and a marquee event in LA to showcase real operations. Archer’s manufacturing tie-up with Stellantis adds a credible path to rate, while Joby’s vertical model trades capacity risk for control.
Valuation is the swing factor. If both firms are on track to compete for the same early routes with similar vehicles and operating envelopes, the company with the stronger balance sheet at a lower market cap looks compelling. Archer’s discount—despite carrying more cash and flashing more ways to make near-term revenue—suggests the market is still pricing Joby’s first-mover advantage more highly than Archer’s diversified setup.
Investors don’t have to pick a single champion; the market is likely big enough for multiple winners in different cities and use cases. But if the question is which name offers more protection and upside right now, Archer has the cleaner math. For Joby, the case rests on executing its certification lead into the first paying flights and turning those flights into repeatable, scalable operations abroad and at home.
The next 12 months should sort “promising” from “proven.” TIA for Joby would be a needle-mover. Archer converting Olympics buzz into dependable service would be another. And any expansion in defense orders for either company could smooth the path to commercial scale by financing batteries, avionics, and manufacturing tooling along the way.
The punchline is simple: the eVTOL winner won’t just be the first to fly; it will be the first to fly safely, often, and profitably—backed by partners who can fill seats, keep chargers humming, and write checks big enough to cross the valley between certification and scale. On that mix of cash, customers, and credibility, Archer has closed the gap—and on valuation, it may already be ahead.
